The WaPo has a decent op-ed up on the ascension of Jawad al-Maliki to the Iraqi prime ministership and the current political situation he faces:
The obstacles to the consolidation of a democratic political system nevertheless remain daunting. Mr. Maliki still has to form a cabinet, something that will probably take most or all of the 30 days he has been allotted and which involves crucial decisions about control of the defense and interior ministries. Should he succeed he will then have to oversee even more difficult negotiations over revisions to the constitution; Iraqis have not yet agreed on such fundamental questions as how much power will be given to federal regions that may be established in the future or how they will share future oil revenue.Despite his conciliatory remarks on Saturday, Mr. Maliki’s record as a hard-line Shiite opponent of concessions to the Sunni minority does not bode well.
Well worth the read for those who know little about Maliki. In short, he’s a long-time Dawa party member, a dedicated ally of Jaafari’s, and a staunch anti-Ba’athist. Obviously, the Sunnis are going to have issues with him, which begs the question: why have they agreed to him being Jaafari’s replacement? Most likely because there are no other viable options left, as most don’t want to see Hakim and the SCIRI in direct control over the national government since that could easily mean the break-up of the Iraqi state and no oil wealth sharing. Maliki’s selection closes the process and disallows the SCIRI the opportunity to rise to the top of a fierce intra-Shi’ite political battle.
However, it seems the SCIRI did in fact know when to call it quits. Hakim et all withdrew their bid for the PM spot, most likely because they continue to hold the most seats in the majlis. A renewed campaign for the prime ministership would have seemed like an overtly aggressive attempt at grabbing unbridled power, which would have caused more trouble than Hakim is currently willing to deal with. Dawa, with Sadrist support, will continue to act as a counterbalance to SCIRI (and Iranian) influence, even while the SCIRI retains control over important ministry posts, including Interior, most likely. Rivalries within the Shi’ite alliance will continue, although lessened with the PM battle out of the way, as will the Ba’athist insurgency, perhaps even intensified by Maliki’s hardline stance against such former regime elements.
Which brings up a rather key point: Maliki wishes to place the varying Iraqi militias under the umbrella of the armed forces instead of disbanding them completely (which the Iraqi constitution technically calls for.) Full militia disarmament and disbanding is highly unlikely since the Shi’ite-led Iraqi government does not have the ability nor the incentive to undertake such a campaign. Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the SCIRI’s Badr Brigades are not going to go home and peacefully lay down their arms because the Iraqi government asks them to, and that’s operating under the assumption that Maliki or other Shi’a would want that to begin with. Maliki himself currently benefits from the Dawa’s alliance with Sadr and his Mahdi Army as it affords protection in case of an SCIRI-led attempt to wrest power away from him and the Dawa leadership. With the Shi’a not willing to disband their militias, the Kurdish peshmerga and other militias will remain active, as well, and Sunnis will feel free to organize their own armed resistance movements and support the insurgency. While Maliki’s rise marks an important milestone in the ongoing drama of Iraqi reconstruction, peace remains a far off possibility.
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on October 8th, 2006 at 8:30 am
[…] The article also suggests that Nouri al-Maliki is not actually interested in dismantling the militias, which is something I suggested back when he claimed otherwise directly after his election following months of Shi’ite in-fighting. Doing so would dismantle his own electoral bloc and lead to the Da’wa party’s defeat. […]