The latest Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, which focusses on the relationship between Iran and Syria, sugests that the current situation in Lebanon makes Bashar al-Assad’s position vis-a-vis a regional Sh’ite/Sunni split more difficult:
Experts say the leaders of several Sunni countries in the region are worried about the rising influence of Shiite Iran. “A regional war is a losing proposition for them,” Hokayem says. “Who’s going to be the anti-Israel, anti-United States champion? It’s going to be Iran, not them.” Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia—all Sunni nations—took the unusual step of criticizing Hezbollah at a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers July 15.
However, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, an Iraqi Shiite leader, has spoken out in support of Hezbollah. Many regional leaders fear a full-fledged sectarian war in Iraq could spark
a similar conflict across the region, which could pose a quandary for Assad’s secular regime. “If there was a regional military war between Sunnis and Shias, the Syrians will be hard-pressed” to choose sides, Hokayem says.
If anything, the continuing conflict has strengthened Assad’s position both domestically and among the more radical Arab public due to his past and continuing support of Hizbollah. The current strain of thought that is emerging is that Syria may move closer to the West if the right signals are sent, both by the US and its Arab allies in the current conflict, but that’s doubtful considering the current upswing Assad is riding. As long as Hizbollah remains popular and embroiled in conflict, Assad will remain popular. While his relationship to Tehran has dragged him unwittingly into the current situation, he is reaping dividends by appearing tougher on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict than the regional Sunni powers. Syria may be a lackey of Iran, but that relationship is currently opening up tremendous regional opportunities for Assad’s regime and proving a massive public relations win.
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