The Digital Diplomat » North Korea May Drop Nuke Test if US Talks

North Korean officials are sending word via China that they may drop a planned nuclear bomb test if the US agrees to bilateral talks:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country’s military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

If this is accurate, China will undoubtedly pressure the US to enter into direct talks with Pyongyang in order to avert a regional catastrophe. A successful North Korean nuclear test would most likely lead to a more aggressive and potentially nuclear Japan under the stewardship of new prime minister Shinzo Abe, and increase tensions along the Korean demilitarized zone. Any sort of conflict in the region involving North Korea would lead to a massive refugee crisis with North Korean citizens streaming into China, and would also severely damage the regional economy. All of these potential consequences will dictate China’s actions and may lead it to reconsider the effectiveness of six party talks. Conflict in the region accompanied by a militaristic Japan is also not in the interests of the United States, which suggests that bilateral talks may be pushed for from within the Bush administration. Considering the track record, however, it’s highly doubtful that the proposal will be an easy sell.

technorati tags:north-korea, japan, china, wmd, nukes, south-korea