There are a couple major things happening this week on the Syrian front in the Long War. First, Damascus has officially normalized diplomatic relations with Iraq. It might seem like a surprising turn of events, but it really shouldn’t be. The secular Syrian and religious Iraqi governments both are interested in repressing Islamist (read: Sunni) extremism, and both hold positive, albeit complicated relations with Iran. Syria has been routinely accused of allowing Sunni extremists to utilize Syria as a base of operations, but any government complicity in such operations is most likely rooted within the regime’s Old Guard, aka the Ba’athist hardliners that are still completely loyal to the late Hafez al-Assad. The Old Guard wants a resurgence of pan-Arab Ba’athism, specifically the Syrian kind, and would be overjoyed to see Iraqi Ba’athists come to power and owe Syria for their successes. So, the current policy course correction can mean one of two things: 1.) The Old Guard Ba’athists are seeing reality, finally, and know that the religious Shi’a are in Baghdad to stay, or 2.) Hafez’s son, Bashar, is finally reining in his father’s old friends and adopting pragmatism as an operational imperative. Or maybe it’s a combination of the two. Regardless, the geopolitics of the Middle East continue to shift.
In Lebanon, pro-Syrian/Iranian forces are causing massive headaches. Pierre Gemayel, Lebanon’s Minister of Industry and a leading anti-Syrian Christian, was assassinated on Tuesday. Gemayel’s death is an ominous omen suggesting that a time of increased hostility between the historically combative Lebanese factions is at hand. With the recent resignations of Hizbollah and Hizbollah-allied Shi’ite cabinet ministers and Gemayel’s death, a governmental crisis is almost guaranteed. Hizbollah will soon call for free elections and will see significant gains, and if it does not, Fuad Saniora’s government will continue to be held hostage.
I hate to admit it, but this is just the beginning.
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