The BBC is reporting on a potential spring pullout of British troops from Basra:
The UK has “confidence” it may be able to hand Basra’s security to Iraqi forces “at some point next spring”, the UK’s Foreign Secretary has said.
Margaret Beckett told MPs Iraq’s fate was “hanging in the balance” and said it was necessary “to hold our nerve”.
“The progress of our current operation in Basra gives us confidence we may be able to achieve transition in that province… at some point next spring.”
Good news, right? The Iraqis are finally standing up as the Allies sit down, but, per usual, the complexities of the situation have to be taken into account. Basra, the city and region, is predominantly Shi’ite, and as such the intra-Shi’ite rivalries will continue to spiral out of control. Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army has a strong presence, as does the SCIRI’s Badr Brigades. Besides that, Basra’s ruling Fadillah party, tenuously aligned with Sadr, is also armed and fights to retain control against mounting pressure from militant SCIRI loyalists. Even with the British troop presence, Basra has been the scene of numerous clashes between Shi’ite factions and tribes over the last several months.
If the British troops do indeed leave this coming spring, the pace of Basra’s spiral into utter chaos may well increase. With the British out of the way, the Sadrists will be able to fully focus on the SCIRI in hopes of locking their control over Basra’s vast oil fields. The unfortunate part is that there may be no better choice left for the British since the militia infestation of the local police forces is too far along to be purged. To do so would create the same sort of problem seen with the purging of Ba’athists from Hussein’s government directly following the initial invasion.
Basra could potentially serve as a microcosm of what could happen politically and militarily in a Baghdad left to provide its own governance and protection. If the Shi’a are incapable of pulling themselves together in Basra, then there will be little hope that a viable ruling coalition will form any time soon in Baghdad. Finding a peaceful solution for the Sunni problem appears to be a secondary concern to religious Shi’ite leaders who are too consumed with greed to realize their country is fracturing at its seams.
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