The Digital Diplomat

India’s True Test Begins

by Justin Delabar on 29/11/08 at 2:02 am

It seems that the Mumbai terrorist siege has finally come to an end, 170+ casualties later. There have been many conflicting reports about the origins of the terrorist organization that perpetrated the attacks, but the narrative that has risen to the surface is the possible involvement of the Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Whether or not this is the case, it certainly ratchets up tensions between Pakistan and India, muddying what had been promising attempts at a sustainable peace. The question now becomes: what next for India?

The world’s largest democracy stands on a game-changing precipice that could not only define its future, but the future of South Asia. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already pointed to the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as being complicit in the attacks. It’s not a claim that is incredibly far-fetched, to be certain. After all, the ISI has been known to utilize Islamic religiosity and anti-Indian sentiment to sway political winds whenever it suited the institution throughout Pakistan’s history. At a time of extreme weakness for the ISI, where it has been successfully marginalized from the inner circles of Pakistani leadership (at least on the surface), it’s easy to see how it could achieve renewed public relevance in the event of Indian retaliation. Undoubtedly Singh and his closest advisors have good reason to take Pakistan and the ISI to task, but the potential for peace and movement on the Jammu and Kashmir issue demands a close look at facts and reliable intelligence over a more reactionary policy.

That is not to say that Lashkar-e-Taiba should not be directly targeted if found responsible for these attacks, far from that. India has every right — in fact, the necessity —  to strike at those who undertook this horrendous operation. But it must be done in a way that takes into consideration the political intricacies of a Pakistan that is more open to cooperation than previously believed possible. To strike into Kashmir or Pakistan prior to making a convincing public case against Lashkar-e-Taiba, and perhaps the ISI’s involvement, would only increase the ISI’s clout and lend credibility to extremist elements within the Pakistan Muslim League parties and the military. It is a story played out between India and Pakistan far too often in the two countries relatively short histories — tensions increase between the two, intelligence and military figures in Pakistan gain clout, relevance, and access to public political figures, and in turn destabilize the political environment. While India’s desire to strike back quickly, and to do so in a devastating manner, must be understandably high, the potential for the reversion of the Pakistani political order must be considered the goal of the terrorists and exactly the opposite for which India must strive. The Pakistani leadership, which has already sent the Director-General of the ISI to India to aid in the investigation despite grumbling from the PML parties, appears willing to work together to uncover and stamp out those responsible for the barbarous events of the last several days.  By acting responsibly in both diplomatic and military channels in a time of amazing strain, India can prove itself ready to join the ranks of the elite nations and place incredible pressure on the Pakistani leadership to reign in extremist elements without upending the apex of that country’s fragile political order.