James Lewis suggests that China may well turn against a nuclear Iran, but a couple paragraphs are wildly inaccurate and make the rest of his rather weak argument suspect. First off:

China has its own radical Islamists, the restless Ughuirs. Beijing doesn’t want a bloody Chechnyan rebellion, or its own intifada, like the one foolish France is now experiencing. It especially doesn’t want an Islamofascist Pakistan on its borders, armed with nukes and ICBMs and run by expansionist martyrs.

First, the Uighurs. Sure, they’re Muslims, but their desire to be an independent state is based on a nationalistic sense of belonging to the community of central Asian nations, not radical Islamist ideology. While Wahhabism (or Salafism, depending on who you ask) is evident among the Uighurs, it is Sufism, a spiritual, moderate form of Islamic worship, that is the most widely practiced Islamic tradition in Uighuri communities. Also, “expansionist martyrs” is a decent example of an oxymoron. How can one be an expansionist if he is a martyr? I mean, he’d be pretty dead and not very expansive. Khomeini was an expansionist and loved 10-year-old martyrs, aka the Basijj militia, but he certainly wasn’t a martyr himself since that’d be quite a big impediment in overseeing the Islamic Revolution. A small quibble.

Second, Pakistan. While a Pakistan ruled openly by Wahhbist radicals would be disastrous for global security, China is supportive of a nuclear Pakistan as the situation in Islamabad currently stands. China and India aren’t exactly the best of friends, with disagreements over the border territories of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh remaining long after the 1963 Sino-Indian War. Unless a radical shift occurs in South Asia, it’s doubtful China will make a major course correction in its policies toward nuclear Pakistan.

Moving on, regarding Iran and Russia:

It’s not that Putin wants Islamist fanatics next door in Iran. He instinctively fears them, because the Russians have fought Islamic aggression for a thousand years. But Putin has his own jihadi rebellion to worry about in Chechnya. It seems likely that Ahmadinejad has promised to do his part to hold down the jihadis in Chechnya as long as the Russians support his nuclear program. Like the Chinese, Russia also has oil interests in Iran. So Russia has been pursuing a cynical French-style policy, playing both sides against each other and stealing as much oil and as many bribes as possible in the process.

Certainly Iran has kept it hands out of Chechnya and the former Soviet republics of central Asia, but Lewis is suggesting that Ahmadinejad is continuing such a policy in order to enforce an ultimatum on Russia. Iran would love to have such influence. If anything, Russia is utilizing Iranian intransigence on nuclear development as a “Persian curtain” to cut off Western influence from central Asia. Iran is set to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization alongside Russia, China, and a number of central Asian member states. A rising Iran will only strengthen the organization’s presence and ensure lessened Western — specifically American — influence in China and Russia’s geographic home turf. Plus, Iran is basically nothing without Russian support, something it’d obviously lose if it started trouble in Chechnya.

And Lewis’ oil argument? “Like the Chinese, Russia also has oil interests in Iran… stealing as much oil and as many bribes as possible in the process.” Sadly laughable. Russia produces more oil than Saudi Arabia, meaning there is no reason for oil to play a prominent role in Russia’s Iranian calculations. China is indeed a different story.

Lewis’ overall argument is that China may turn against Iran now that it sees what dealing with rogues, i.e. North Korea, could entail. I’d love to agree, but Beijing undoubtedly sees Tehran as a more rational actor than Pyongyang. And, amazingly, that is the correct view — at least Iran knows it needs to feign a civilian nuclear program to mask its true intentions.

That’s right. We’ve actually lived long enough to see a conservative Iranian establishment not be the most unpredictable regime on the planet. Hats off, North Korea. Hats off.

If North Korea did actually test a nuclear device today, or perhaps even if it only claimed it did, this is a defining moment for China. Simply, North Korea will not see the United Nations as a credible deterrent as long as China continues to quietly support the regime in Pyongyang and the United States remains tied up militarily in the Middle East. Since the US is going to be embedded within Iraq well into the unforeseeable future, UN sanctions are the only enforceable option at the Security Council level currently. If wide-ranging sanctions that include both Russia and especially China are not passed within the next couple days, Kim Jung Il will be convinced that he can get away with potentially anything he desires; an unacceptable outcome with incredibly dangerous implications. Now the UN and its utopian founding notions of collective security and punishment will be tested on what should be a no-brainer Security Council resolution proposed by the United States:

The United States is suggesting international inspections of any cargo going into or out of [North Korea].

…

The U.S. draft calls for an overall arms embargo, prohibitions on any financial transactions that might support missile activities, a freeze on any assets related to North Korea’s weapons programs, measures to prevent counterfeiting by North Korea and a ban on luxury goods.

While both Russia and China are currently ambiguous on their support for or against the US draft resolution, it would not be surprising if they do vote for it. The two regional nuclear powers are not interested in letting an unpredictable state actor such as North Korea dictate East Asian security conditions by way of a looming nuclear threat. In the case of the sanctions’ passing, a naval embargo of North Korea will be required, and China’s burgeoning navy is perfect for such a role in a multinational force.

Of course, such a plan assumes that China would want to play a role in any coastal policing of the North Korean state. In all likelihood that will not be the case, as China would see its support for a US-backed sanctions resolution as concession enough. However, a paradox now presents itself for Hu Jintao and the Chinese Communist Party. If China wishes to be the benign east Asian hegemon it’s supposedly meant to be, it has to prove itself as a guarantor of regional security — yet it wishes to prop up Kim Jung Il and his regime out of a selfish fear of conflict causing instability and then harm to China and its markets. Kim, however, has guaranteed instability by putting both Japan and South Korea on the defensive. While both countries fall under the US defense blanket, one has to wonder how long Japan, which is considering re-working its pacifist constitution, will stay a non-nuclear power if North Korea keeps ramping up the stakes. China, despite calls for moderation and negotiation, has remained North Korea’s only, albeit uneasy, friend. Now that the friendship has become a hindrance to China and a change in policy is required, one that will assuage Japan and South Korea’s fears and put in place a new East Asian collective security order with China at its lead. The process can begin with a strong Chinese presence in a naval blockade of North Korea. It would send a strong message to Pyongyang that it has finally stepped over the line, something that, coming from China, would not simply be ignored as the numerous Security Council warnings have been. China, in this instance, will determine if it is truly ready to be a regional leader and a key player in the international security environment.

technorati tags:north-korea, japan, china, wmd, nukes, south-korea

North Korean officials are sending word via China that they may drop a planned nuclear bomb test if the US agrees to bilateral talks:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country’s military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

If this is accurate, China will undoubtedly pressure the US to enter into direct talks with Pyongyang in order to avert a regional catastrophe. A successful North Korean nuclear test would most likely lead to a more aggressive and potentially nuclear Japan under the stewardship of new prime minister Shinzo Abe, and increase tensions along the Korean demilitarized zone. Any sort of conflict in the region involving North Korea would lead to a massive refugee crisis with North Korean citizens streaming into China, and would also severely damage the regional economy. All of these potential consequences will dictate China’s actions and may lead it to reconsider the effectiveness of six party talks. Conflict in the region accompanied by a militaristic Japan is also not in the interests of the United States, which suggests that bilateral talks may be pushed for from within the Bush administration. Considering the track record, however, it’s highly doubtful that the proposal will be an easy sell.

technorati tags:north-korea, japan, china, wmd, nukes, south-korea