Brookings’ Flynt Leverett, in an article that opens by comparing the Syrian regime to the Godfather, takes a similar line as myself on Bashar al-Assad’s most attractive option in the wake of the UN demand for full investigative cooperation:

But [Asef] Shawkat and Maher [al-Assad] may have ambitions of their own. Shawkat’s wife, Bashar’s older sister Bushra, is by all accounts the most politically astute and ambitious of the Assad children, but because of her sex, she must pursue politics through her husband. Shawkat himself is no shrinking violet; he eloped with Bushra over her family’s objections when Hafez Assad was at the height of his powers. Bashar’s younger brother Maher has been described by an astute Western diplomat who knows him as a brutal and primitive man, possessing “all of Basil’s appetites but none of his qualities.” Maybe, just maybe, Bashar will treat the U.N. investigation as a chance to get rid of one or both of his most potent long-term rivals, and be the only man left standing at the end of the day.

Leverett suggests that Assad may not have directly ordered the assassination, which is not exactly outlandish. His disdain for Hariri was not exactly secret, and it’s highly doubtful he shed crocodile tears at the news of the assassination. However, there is simply too little information available — at least in the public sphere — to adequately put events together and ascertain where, exactly, the idea came from. Assad could have ordered the assassination or Maher, or Shawkat, could have taken the initiative for a despotic dictator that has traditionally been viewed as too weak among Damascus-based hardliners. Now dead (by suicide, supposedly) interior minister Ghzai Kana’an also plays into the story. If anything, the Mehlis report has cemented the fact that Syria is run by a regime of hotheads and countervailining personal and professional interests, led by someone comparable to the absent-minded professor with a lisp. Not exactly a non-toxic combination, but, sadly, it may be the least dangerous of all Syrian configurations currently available.

More tonight, hopefully, after the day job and class.